On studying precognition

Today I received an email from somebody who had read some of my discussions of Psi research. They made an interesting point that has so far been neglected in most of the debates I participated in. With their permission I post their email (without identifying information) and my response to it. I hope this clarifies my views:

I also have experienced real and significant episodes of precognition. After many experiences I researched my ancestry and found relatives who had histories of episodes of precognition. The studies I have read that claim precognition is not real all have the same error. I can’t pick a card, I can’t tell you what the next sound will be. Precognition does not work like that. I will demonstrate with this example.
I was standing at the front desk at work when I got a terrible feeling something was wrong. I didn’t know what. I called a friend and told him something is wrong.  I began a one hour drive home and continued talking to my friend. The feeling that something was wrong grew to an increasing level as a approached the river. I saw a city bus parked on the side of the road. Many vehicles were down by the river. I passed that scene and then told my friend that a child was now drowned and she was close to the bridge about 1/2 a mile down river. The next day the TV news confirmed that she was found at the bridge down river.
No one told me there was a drowning, no one told me it was a girl, no one knew she was floating by the bridge.
This type of thing happens to me regularly. I believe it results from the same thing that will stampede cattle. I think humans communicate through speech and other forms of non verbal communication. I think somehow I am able to know what the herd is thinking or saying without being there. I think the reason I got the feeling something was wrong had to do with the escalating fear and crying out of the people who were madly searching for the child who fell in the river.
So trying to study precognition by getting a person to predict the next card will never work. Look at the reality of how it happens and see if you can study it a different way.

My response to this:

Thank you for your email. I’d say we are in greater agreement than you may think. What I have written on my blog and in the scientific literature about precognition/telepathy/presentiment pertains strictly to the scientific experiments that have been done on these paranormal abilities, usually with the sole aim to prove their existence. You say you “can’t pick a card” etc – tell that to the researchers who believe that showing a very subtle difference from chance performance on such simple experiments is evidence for precognition.
Now, do I believe you have precognition? No, I don’t. The experiences you describe are not uncommon but they may be uncommonly frequent for you. Nevertheless they are anecdotal evidence and my first hunch would be to suspect cognitive biases that we know can masquerade as paranormal abilities. There may also be cognitive processes we currently simply have no understanding of. How we remember our own thoughts is still very poorly understood. The perception of causality is a fascinating topic. We know we can induce causality illusions but this line of inquiry is still in its infancy.
But I cannot be certain of this. Perhaps you do have precognition. I don’t have any intention to convince you that you don’t; I only want to clarify why I don’t believe it, certainly not based on the limited information I have. The main issue here is that your precognition is unfalsifiable. You say yourself that “Precognition does not work like that.” If it does not occur with the same regularity as other natural phenomena, it isn’t amenable to scientific study. Psi researchers believe that precognition etc have that regularity and so they think you can demonstrate it with card-picking experiments. My primary argument is about that line of thinking.
I am not one of those scientists who feel the need to tell everyone what to believe in. These people are just as irritating as religious fundamentalists who seek to convert everybody. If some belief is unfalsiable, like the existence of God or your belief in your precognition, then it falls outside the realm of science. I have no problem with you believing that you have precognition, certainly not as long as it doesn’t cause any harm to anyone. But unless we can construct a falsifiable hypothesis, science has no place in it.

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