Implausible hypotheses

A day may come when I will stop talking about conspiracy theories again, but it is not this day. There is probably nothing new about conspiracy theories – they have doubtless been with us since our evolutionary ancestors gained sentience – but I fear that they are a particularly troublesome scourge of our modern society. The global connectivity of the internet and social media enable the spread of this misinformation pandemic in unprecedented ways, just as our physical connectivity facilitate the spread of an actual virus. Also like an actual virus, they can be extremely dangerous and destructive.

But fear not, I will try to move this back to being a blog on neuroscience eventually :P. Today’s post is about some tools we can use to determine the plausibility of a hypothesis. I have written about this before. Science is all about formulating hypotheses and putting them to the test. Not all hypotheses are created equal however – some hypotheses are so obviously true they hardly need testing while others are so implausible that testing them is pointless. Using conspiracy theories as an example, here I will list some tools I use to spot what I consider to be highly implausible hypotheses. I think this is a perfect example, because despite the name conspiracy theories are not actually scientific theories at all – they are in fact conspiracy hypotheses and most are pretty damn implausible.

This is not meant to be an exhaustive list. There may be other things you can think of that help you determine that a claim is implausible, for example Carl Sagan’s chapter on The Fine Art of Baloney Detection. You can also relate much of this back to common logical fallacies. My post merely lists a few basic features that I frequently encounter out there in the wild. Perhaps you’ll find this list useful in your own daily face-palming experiences.

The Bond Villain

Is a central feature to this purported plot a powerful billionaire with infinite funding and unlimited resources and power at their disposal? Do they have a convoluted plan that just smells evil, such as killing off large parts of the world population for the “common good”? You know, like injecting them with vaccines that sterilise them?

The House of Cards

Is the convoluted plan so complicated and carefully crafted numerous steps in advance where each little event has to fall in place just right in order for it to work? You know, like using 5G tech to weaken people’s immune system so it starts a global pandemic with a virus you created in your secret lab so that everyone happily gets injected with your vaccine which will contain nanoscale microchips but not with any other vaccine that others might have developed in the meantime? And obviously you know your vaccine will work against the virus because you could test it thoroughly without anybody else finding out about it?

The Future Tech

Does the plan involve some technology you’ve first heard of on Star Trek or Doctor Who? Is a respiratory illness caused by mobile phone technology? Is someone injecting nanoscale computer chips with a vaccine? Is there brain scanning technology with spatial and temporal resolution that would render all of my research completely obsolete?

The Red Pill

Have you been living a lie all your life? Will embracing the idea mean that you have awoken and/or finally see what’s right in front of you? Are most other people brainwashed sheeple? Did a YouTube video by someone who’ve never heard of finally open your eyes to reality?

The Dull Razorblade

Is the idea built on multiple factors that are not actually necessary to explain the events that unfurled? Was a virus “obviously” created in a lab even though countless viruses occur naturally? Are the odds that what they claim happened more likely than that the same thing happened by chance? Is the most obvious explanation for why the motif of Orion’s Belt appears throughout history and the world because aliens visited from Rigel 7 and not because it’s one of the most recognisable constellations in the night sky?

The World Government

Does it require the deep cooperation of most governments in the world whilst they squabble and vehemently disagree in the public limelight? Is the nefarious scheme perpetrated by the United Nations, which are famous for always agreeing, being efficient, and never having any conflict? (Note that occasionally it may only be the European Union rather than the UN).

The Flawed Explanation

Are the individual hypotheses that form the bigger conspiracy mutually exclusive? Is it based on current geography or environmental conditions even though it happened hundreds, thousands, or millions of years in the past? Does it involve connecting dots on the Mercator world map in straight lines which would actually not be straight on the globe or any other map projection?

The Unlikely Saint

Is the person most criticised, ridiculed, or reviled by the mainstream media in fact the good guy? Imagine, if you will, a world leader who is a former intelligence operative and spy master and who has invaded several sovereign countries. Is he falsely accused of assassinating his enemies and pursuing a cold political plan and actually just a friendly, misunderstood teddy bear? Or perhaps that demagogue, who riles the masses with hateful rhetoric and who has committed acts of corruption in broad daylight, is in fact defending us from evil puppy eating monsters? The CEO of a fossil fuel company in truth protects us from all those environmentalist hippies in centre-right governments who want to poison us with clean air and their utopian idealism of a habitable planet?

The Vast Network

Is everyone in on it? All scientists including all authors, editors and peer reviewers and all the technical support staff and administrators, all influential political leaders and their aides, all medical doctors and nurses and pharmacists, all engineers and all school teachers are involved in this complex scheme to fool the unwashed masses even though there has never been a credible whistleblower? Have they remained silent even though the Moon Landing was hoaxed half a century ago? Do all scientists working on a vaccine for widespread disease actually want to inject you with nanoscale microchips? Is there fortunately a YouTuber whose videos finally lay bare this outrageous, evil scheme?

The Competent Masterminds

Does it assume an immense level of competence and skill on the part of political leaders and organisations to execute their nefarious convoluted plans in the face of clear evidence to the contrary? Are they all just acting like disorganised buffoons to fool us?

The Insincere Questions

Is the framer of the idea “merely asking questions”? Do they simply want you to “think for yourself”? Does thinking for yourself in fact mean agreeing with that person? Do they ask questions about who funded some scientific research without any understanding of how scientific research is actually funded? Are they “not saying it was aliens” but it is obvious that is was in fact aliens?

The Unfalsifiable Claims

Is there no empirical evidence that could prove the claim wrong? Is this argument going in circles or are the goalposts shifted? Is a fact-checking website untrustworthy because it is “obviously part of the conspiracy”, even though you can directly check their source material which is of course also all fabricated? Is the idea based on some claim that has been shown to be a fraud, and the fraudster has been discredited even by his co-authors, but naturally this just part of an even bigger cover-up and a smear campaign? Can only the purveyor of this conspiracy theory be trusted?

The Torrent of Praise

Is the comment section under this YouTube video or Facebook post a long list of people praising and commending the poster for their truth-telling and use of “evidence”? Do most of these commenters have numbers in their name? Do they have profile pictures that look strangely akin to stock photos? Do any of the comments concur with the original post by adding some anecdote that sounds like an episode of the X-Files?

The Puppet Masters

Does it mention the Elders or Zion, the Illuminati, the Knights Templar, or some similar sounding, secret organisation? Or perhaps the Deep State?

The Flat Earth

Does it blatantly deny reality?